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User blog:Mister Ghosty/Item Drop Frequency Research Intro + Gripper Freq Stats
Hello! I am Ghosty! Me and my brilliant team of scientists have decided to help out a little with the wiki. We are translating some data from the Japanese wiki, and also, something I'm excited about, is that we're logging data to the effects of figuring out exactly how often each item drops from each mob! This may not be so important per se, but I feel like it will really help the people who are trying to figure out where to grind for item collection and how long it will take them, amoung other things! I made this thread for discussion, but mainly for publishing my progress so others have access to our findings in case we run out of steam or get held up in the middle of data collection! Also because I'm excited and the game is down for mantainance at the moment! Astro and I are working on different areas. I'm taking the Lv50, because I'm staying behind to help weaker friends with boss battles. I'm starting right at the beginning, collecting data on the Southern Almerie Plains Grippers for my first specimen. Here's my data so far at 1,605 gripper kills in almerie plains south: Steel 79, Hammer 77, Handle 79, Pretty Corus 58, Solid Corus 51, Light Corus 69, Ruby Ore 37, Brass Piece 53, Lead Piece 79, Ragged Rag 30, Beast Claw 6, Medelita 38, Thumbing 6, Sling 2, Chaos Mist 1. Do you hate math? I know I do! Here's a screenshot of the actual program and layout I've been using to help visualize and track the data. The Tally and Inital Count columns are just for logging purposes and don't display usefiul data, so I've tidied them up. We have already confirmed some interesting data! The first is that (although this might seem obvious), item drops are calculated per kill rather than per battle, so a double battle will net you 200% of the items that a single battle would. Also, while the chance of getting any item is 42% per kill (for Grippers; it may differ by item variety for other mobs), the chance of getting one particular item is never higher than 0.05% (one item per twenty kills)!! Which is a lot less than I initially anticipated. Speaking of initial anticipations, I estimated that I would need roughly 300 kills per monster to get reliable data, but in fact I was sorely mistaken. I've gotten over 1,600 Gripper kills and although I'm seeing definite trends, I'm going to push for 2,000 for accuracy, mainly because of how unlikely it is to get any one particular item, especially the most rare. Speaking of rarity, I thought that each item had a rarity of either common or rare, but in fact there seems to be a stepladder of rarity with ten distinct levels '''that I personally call the Drop Frequency Index. (They are, per kill, 0.05%, 0.045%, 0.04%, ect. through 0.005%; or, in reverse, '''1-10 drops per 200 kills.) Before I move on to other monsters, I can only say for certainty that, for instance, the item Steel seems to have an index of 10, but possibly only for Grippers, as it may drop from another monster more rarely. I need to do more testing on this, and whether the index is a real thing. It sure looks like it is so far. As I've been collecting, the bars in the graph will go up and down, but they are gravitating consistantly around index borders. Thanks for reading! I'm going to keep logging data as soon as the game gets back online. I'll replace this picture with the finalized data once I feel that the numbers have stopped fluctuating, which will probably be around 2k kills, but I've increased the goal about five times already, so we'll see! Questions: Do you guys feel that the data will be useful to players who find it on the wiki? If so, where should it be displayed? (My idea was next to items listed in monster/item drop lists.) Does anyone want to help with research? (There wouldn't be a minimum, you could just jot down information while you're grinding. I can put up the apropriate methodology for data collection if so.) Is anything I mentioned confusing or objectionable? Let me know! And of course feel free to comment or communicate about whatever. Sorry for windbagging it up, and have a great day! Mister Ghosty (talk) 03:06, May 14, 2014 (UTC) Category:Blog posts